In the day just past, bonds were primarily concerned with reacting to the Fed announcement, press conference, and updated economic projections.  Even though the Fed's median rate forecast for the end of 2019 remained unchanged, the average dropped from 2.49% to 2.17%.  There were also a few verbiage changes in the announcement that paved the way for the Fed to cut rates in July if the economic reports justifies it.

In the day ahead, bonds will attempt to add another day to the range breakout that began on Tuesday.  Combined with yesterday's gains, the breakout suggests the trend channel highlighted in the chart below (yellow lines).  Even if that trend channel doesn't last long, it would still be a victory if rates can merely treat 2.06% as a ceiling in the coming weeks.  

2019-6-20 open

Economic data will be critical in validating any potential policy shift from the Fed.  Today's reports are light in terms of importance, and that won't change in a major way until the first week of July.  Until then, we can stay on the lookout for a shift back out of 'overbought' territory in longer-term momentum.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-32 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0080 : -0.0190
Pricing as of 6/20/19 8:56AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 20
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jun 11.0 16.6
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 222
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) May 0.1 -0.1