Somehow, the bond market managed to end the week at 2.084% (10yr yield) which is exactly where it ended last week.  In all my years of market-watching, I've never seen a sharp weekly (like the one we just had in late May) at the end of a sharp multi-month rally give way to 2 straight weeks of fairly flat trading in bonds.  To say that this raises the risk of a very big breakout very soon would be an understatement.  

Today's data was no help in sussing out the direction of such a breakout.  Strongly positive revisions to last month's Retail Sales numbers put only modest pressure on bonds early this morning.  A huge drop in consumers' 5yr inflation expectations pushed back in the other direction by about as much at 10am.  The rest of the day was spent moving perfectly sideways.

When it comes to looking to the future in anticipation of the catalyst for a range breakout, next Wednesday's Fed announcement is probably the only game in town--at least when it comes to market movers that are scheduled in advance.  If that doesn't do the trick, we'll move on to discuss the G20 summit (trade war stuff) and then the first week of data in July (was that weak NFP reading a fluke?).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-09 : -0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0840 : -0.0070
Pricing as of 6/14/19 6:26PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:42PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly
8:41AM  :  Bonds Erase Overnight Gains after Retail Sales

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Mike Drews  :  "I've never had this many loans at one time in 15 years"
Caroline Roy  :  "Thanks for having such great daily updates MG! i just sent a snip to a customer that was balking at the 3.125% quote on a 15 year mortgage i gave him. the narrative along with prevalent rates helped him understand why he should take a good deal when he sees one!"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 14
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* May 0.5 0.6 -0.2
9:15 Industrial Production (%) May +0.4 0.2 -0.5
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Jun 2.6 2.9
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Jun 2.2 2.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Jun 97.9 98.0 100.0