Trading weeks don't get much more action-packed that this.  Bonds are coming off a surprisingly stellar week.  After Trump turned his trade war comments toward Mexico on Thursday night, Treasuries and MBS surged well into the best levels since 2017.  But in order to do that, they already had to be close to the best levels since 2017.  

We know that much of the recent strength in the bond market is based on the trade war, but it's not as if that market mover exists in a vacuum while the rest of the world goes about its business.  In fact, European yields never even experienced the sort of scary surge seen in US yields by the end of 2018.  Very simply put, European yields have been the proverbial tortoise in the race back to all-time lows and they just crossed the finish line!  US yields are just rushing to catch up.

2019-6-3 open

The chart above serves as a reminder of the backdrop for US economy and US bond markets.  Economic data would have to be exceptionally strong to call global growth concerns into question.  Weaker data, however, would only fan the fires of doubt and concern.  

Either way, there will be plenty of data to digest.  Right out of the gate, we have the final version of a the Markit PMI report that had a big impact on bonds 2 weeks ago at 945am this morning.  There's less of a surprise factor with the "final," but it's still worth keeping an eye on.  15 minutes later, the ISM version of the same data is released.  Traditionally, that's a much bigger market mover for the US.

Data takes a bit of a breather on Tuesday, but then crescendos into Friday morning.  Highlights include ISM Non-Manufacturing on Wednesday, the European Central Bank announcement and press conference on Thursday, and NFP Friday.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
100-18 : +0-05
10 YR
2.1110 : -0.0310
Pricing as of 6/3/19 9:15AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 03
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * May 53.0 52.8
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Apr 0.4 -0.9
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * May 52.0 50.0
Tuesday, Jun 04
9:45 ISM-New York index * May 882.8
Wednesday, Jun 05
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 259.4
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1255.4
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* May 183 275
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * May 58.5 59.5
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * May 55.5 55.5
Thursday, Jun 06
8:30 Labor Costs Revised (%) Q1 -0.8 -0.9
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Apr -50.7 -50.0
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 215 215
Friday, Jun 07
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* May 185 263
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* May 3.6 3.6
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Apr 0.7 0.7