Bonds finally moved in a less friendly direction today after 3 solid days of gains.  The losses were logical, though, considering an absence of geopolitical headlines and an abundance of stronger economic data in the early domestic session.  In fact, it was that data more than anything that pushed yields higher and MBS Prices lower in the 830am-930am time frame.

Refreshingly, a surge in the stock market didn't do any noticeable damage to bonds.  That's not something we would have expected based on the recent trend of extreme correlation.  10yr yields managed to hold under the 2.425% technical ceiling with room to spare.  Fannie 3.5 MBS only lost an eighth of a point and never experienced any volatility after the initial hour of losses.

Tomorrow's data is limited, as is the entirety of next week.  Then it's a 3.5 day weekend for Memorial Day.  That means tomorrow may not be too soon for us to expect to see inconsistent trading and correlations as traders get positions in order for an extended weekend followed quickly by "month-end."


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
101-08 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3940 : +0.0150
Pricing as of 5/16/19 5:56PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:45AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:45AM  :  Data Not Helping Bonds

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Oliver Orlicki  :  "They are sounding dovish so far"
Jeff Cotton  :  "Will this fed speak help at all today? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/feds-neel-kashkari-says-rate-hikes-were-not-called-for.html"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 17
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* May 2.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment May 97.5 97.2
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* May 2.5