Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days.  With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'cast in today's Retail Sales and another decades-long low in Jobless Claims), any recessionary risks have been pinned on the two biggest economies that have been sending the weakest cues: Europe and China.

Earlier this week (and starting last Friday), Chinese economic data didn't do anything to help the cause of worrying about global growth.  Overnight trading saw the China trade level off, however, thus opening the door for a raft of EU economic data to have its say.  Among that data, it was the weaker German manufacturing PMI that set the tone overnight.  German Bunds rallied sharply and pulled US Treasuries along for the ride. 

In the domestic session, stronger economic data in the morning initially pushed bonds toward weaker territory), but it was no match for afternoon strength in German bond markets (that's afternoon in European time zones, i.e. AM hours in the US).

The net effect is a bounce at a 2.62% ceiling as of yesterday for 10yr yields and a failed attempt to challenge the 2.55% floor today.  Still, simply being able to challenge that floor feels like a victory after the past 2 days of trading.  With a 3.5 day weekend already begun (and with idiosyncratic trading being a typical feature of the half-day before a 3.5 day weekend), we'll have to tune in next week to see if bonds are more predisposed to challenge the most immediate ceiling (2.62) or floor (2.55).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-23 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.5600 : -0.0320
Pricing as of 4/18/19 2:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:40AM  :  Strong US Data Pushing Back on Overnight Rally

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Hugh W. Page  :  "Fed seems to be confirming that the economy cannot stand on its own feet without accommodation."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S KAPLAN SAYS CURRENT FED FUNDS RATE IS PROBABLY APPROPRIATE FOR U.S. ECONOMY, MIGHT BE MILDLY ACCOMODATIVE -WSJ INTERVIEW"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S KAPLAN SAYS GLOBAL GROWTH IS STILL DECELERATING BUT CHINA IS STABILIZING"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S KAPLAN SAYS HIS CONFIDENCE IN GROWTH IS FIRM AND HAS BEEN BUILDING"
DIRK POSTUPACK  :  "Closed my other sub 600 deal yesterday..Veteran ,w/ a 586 score....she told us at closing that no one would help her after numerous turndowns...….Gave her an American Flag for her house and thanked her for her service, and she broke out in tears!!!!! "Getting a Veteran a home is one way we can repay a small portion of a debt that can never be repaid!" Great day in the business yesterday!!!!"
Rob DiGiore  :  "Zillow giving LOs a heart attack today."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Apr 18
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Apr 8.5 10.4 13.7
8:30 Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Mar 1.2 0.7 -0.4
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Mar 1.6 0.9 -0.2
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 192 200 196
Friday, Apr 19
0:00 Good Friday *