At first glance, this week's economic calendar is fairly light, with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) being the only upper-tier report in terms of potential market movement.  Even then, we haven't seen as much of a reaction to recent examples compared to CPI reports in 2017 and early 2018. Chalk that up to the fact that Core y/y CPI has fallen from early 2018 highs and leveled off in the "safe" 2.1-2.3% range.  Investors currently don't see any real chance of a return to 1.7% in the near future, nor are they too concerned about a break above 2.3%. Were either of those things to happen in the next few months, the market's willingness to react would ramp up quickly.  Wednesday's forecast is for 2.1%.

2019-4-8 CPI

Though not technically economic data, the Treasury auction cycle (Tue-Thu with 3, 10, and 30yr auctions in that order) will offer an important update on demand as they will be the lowest-yielding examples of each tenor in well over a year.  That situation didn't seem to phase investors during the 2, 5, and 7yr auctions 2 weeks ago, so it will be interesting to see if anything has changed now that yields have been mostly moving higher since then.

When it comes to "mostly moving higher," rates/yields continue to operate near a crossroads between the previous and current ranges.  The 2.50-2.55% zone in 10yr yields is the battleground at the upper end of the lower range.  That's what we're hoping to defend this week.  If yields break and hold above 2.55%, it would a more serious negative sign than any other random sell-off in bonds.

2019-4-8 open

If we had to pick one day of the week as a focal point for potential volatility, Wednesday is the obvious choice.  After CPI in the morning and the 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm, we'll also get the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting at 2pm.  This gives us a behind-the-scenes glimpse at the discussion that resulted in the surprising announcement on March 20th.  At some point on the same day (or throughout the day, really), we can also expect headlines to start streaming in from the EU's emergency Brexit summit.  Even though Brexit doesn't have the final say in whether rates move higher or lower (especially in the US), it continues to play an important supporting role, accounting for quite a bit of intraday volatility and occasionally adding to momentum.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
101-05 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.5020 : +0.0030
Pricing as of 4/8/19 9:44AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 08
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Feb -0.6 0.1
Tuesday, Apr 09
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 38
Wednesday, Apr 10
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 276.6
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1786.0
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Mar 2.1 2.1
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
Thursday, Apr 11
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Mar 2.4 2.5
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 211 202
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.738 1.717
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*
Friday, Apr 12
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Mar 0.4 0.6
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Mar 0.2 0.6
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Apr 2.5
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Apr 2.5
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Apr 98.0 98.4