The tale of two ranges continued in grand fashion overnight as 10yr yields made it all the way to the top of the lower, better range seen since the March 20th Fed announcement.  Granted, they were already closing in on those levels by yesterday, but fresh US/China trade headlines were good for another few bps of higher yields.

Arriving at the crossroads between ranges carries a certain amount of significance all on its own, but that significance was amplified by the fact that it was NFP Friday.  Point being: NFP always has the power to cause bigger-than-average movement.  If that movement happened right at a range boundary, it would carry a strong technical signal in favor of the prevailing range.

As it happened, however, neither range prevailed.  10yr yields finally made up their mind after a mixed initial reaction and eased slightly lower, but the gains weren't big enough to declare a winner.  As to the rationale for indecision, it can be traced to mixed signals from the jobs data (covered in much greater detail in the MBS Huddle).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
101-04 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.4990 : -0.0110
Pricing as of 4/5/19 5:38PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:15AM  :  Now Back to Positive Territory!
8:45AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Rally at First on NFP, But Now Back to Weakest Levels

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Not necessarily, TR, just that there is short and long-term perspective. They can vary depending on what kind of mood you want to be in."
Ted Rood  :  "So you're saying we shouldn't whine excessively about rates just now?"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think the 1yr chart probably tells the best story. (i.e. recent losses = minimal in the bigger picture--especially for MBS)"
Jennifer Turner  :  "The 5 day chart looks like a roller coaster of death"
Jeff Anderson  :  "The buyers are just resting up for next week."
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Talk about sideways trading"
Dominick Cordone  :  "im all for locking, unless you want to float."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 05
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Mar +0.1 0.3 0.4
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Mar +196 180 20
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Mar 3.8 3.8 3.8