Bonds were very modestly stronger today, although the more important takeaway is that they effectively held in line with the highest yields of the past 2 weeks (not to mention the highest yields since before the March 20th Fed Announcement).   In many ways, the Fed announcement was the event that kicked off a trial run down into the recent range.  The policies behind the move were justified with concerns about global growth.  2 days later there were alarmingly weak economic reports at home and abroad.  The Fed looked vindicated.

Since then, more than a few pieces of data have argued the other point.  Most recently it was the Jobless Claims report this morning, showing the best levels since 1969, more than fully reversing the labor market missteps seen in the late 2018 data (yes, even before the government shutdown).

With the last NFP report being so weak (20k), we're all but assured of a much bigger number this time around.  The size of the necessary jump makes it much harder to know how to react as far as the bond market is concerned.  That's likely why bonds are staging in a more neutral zone ahead of the data.  It's their way of saying they're ready to move back up into the previous range or double down on this one.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
101-00 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.5130 : -0.0040
Pricing as of 4/4/19 5:26PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:45AM  :  Stronger Overnight, But Losing Some Ground After Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "6 is typically plenty, but we're only 3-4 higher from rate sheets"
Timothy Baron  :  "From when pricing comes out, really."
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Right MG?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "look for +6 for the RP's to come in"
Timothy Baron  :  "Yeah only a couple of ticks better now."
Dominick Cordone  :  "look where we opened."
Wendy Smith  :  "If this were a red day, there would be reprices for the worse by now, no? Where are the reprices for the better?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Apr 04
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 202 216 211
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.717 1.750 1.756
Friday, Apr 05
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Mar 0.3 0.4
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Mar 180 20
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Mar 3.8 3.8