The title of yesterday's recap was "Don't Call It a Comeback," and today's weakness is why.  Well, to be fair, since I'm always the first to tell you that no one knows what tomorrow will bring in financial markets, we knew nothing of today's weakness ahead of time.  What we DID know what that yields were higher on the day, yet again, and were visibly struggling to make it back below a key technical level at 2.47%.  That weakness kept rates in a clearly-defined trend toward higher levels.  Today's weakness simply offered a continuation of that trend.

If you want to leave it at that with the conclusion that this new trend is not your friend until it does something friendly, that's fine.  If, on the other hand, you want some fundamental meat to underpin the market movement, we have that too.  Specifically, positive updates on the US/China trade negotiations hit both sides of the market early in the overnight session (helping stocks and hurting bonds).  Decent European economic data added to the pain several hours later when European bond markets came online.  And that was that for the rest of the day (i.e. bonds were flat in the domestic session).

To make matters just a bit more disconcerting, the domestic session might not have been as flat as it was had it not been for the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing data.  Bottom line, 10yr yields rose more than 5bps on a day where two important economic reports suggested a move in the other direction.  So even if fundamental data is driving some of the movement, bonds have been placing more importance on the data that supports the pull-back so far this week.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
100-30 : -0-04
10 YR
2.5260 : +0.0470
Pricing as of 4/3/19 4:33PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:35AM  :  Weaker Bonds Unmoved by Weaker ADP Employment

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Hodges  :  "locked through mid May."
Jason Anker  :  "depends on how you feel about Friday"
James Buhr  :  "nope"
Ted Rood  :  "NO"
Raul Lopez  :  "Y'all floating thru this red?"
Caroline Roy  :  "i'm not going to go down this rabbit hole, but the important thing to remember is that if a work/life balance is important, you are the only one in charge of that. it doesn't matter if you are a broker or a correspondent, we all work for our clients. Some people like doing that from an office, some from a coffee shop and some from their couch. Just be accountable to what matters, your self, your family and your clients."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 03
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 276.6 267.5
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1786 1289.5
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Mar 129.0 170 183
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Mar 56.1 58.0 59.7
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Mar 57.4 61.5 64.7