Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit deal.  "Less bad" economic data in Germany also contributed to European bond market selling. 

At the start of the domestic session--particularly the 8:20am CME Open--there was a glut of sell trades in the bond market.  This resulted in what was, at the time, the biggest volume spike of the day (by far) and a noticeable uptick in yields. Technical levels were first to provide support with 10yr yields bouncing at 2.63%.  After that, US/China trade headlines helped take yields to their lowest levels of the domestic session just before 1pm, though the rally proved to be short-lived.

Bonds ended the day slightly weaker but close enough to 'unchanged' that the bigger picture is still very flat.  This is what we have been expecting to see on the day before the March Fed announcement for months now.  If anything, I'm surprised that we haven't seen a bigger challenge to the broader sideways range boundaries set in January (2.55-2.80).  In fact, we haven't seen any challenge of those boundaries.  We might not see one tomorrow either, but we will likely see significantly more volatility than we've seen so far this week.

The Fed statement prints at 2pm ET along with the updated economic projections (aka "dots").  Then at 2:30pm, Jerome Powell will hold the now customary post-announcement press conference.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-19 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6140 : +0.0130
Pricing as of 3/19/19 4:16PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:44AM  :  Moving Into Negative Territory as Sellers Pounce on CME Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Zimmer  :  "i don't like the unknown of it. too many pre-approvals out there that may change"
Bert Swyers  :  "not sure if this has been discussed already, but what do you guys and gals think about this FHA total scorecard change?"
Matthew Graham  :  "biggest volume spike of the day"
Matthew Graham  :  "SOME U.S. OFFICIALS SAID TO SEE CHINA WALKING BACK TRADE OFFERS"
Jason Anker  :  "yes, global"
Curt Sandfort  :  "encompass issues for everyone?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 19
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Jan 0.1 0.3 0.1
Wednesday, Mar 20
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1108.3
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 250.8
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 2.375 2.375