In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st quarter of 2019.  That's because, like yesterday, nothing interesting happened to motivate any meaningful movement.  If that's all the more you'd like to know about today, feel free to go about your business and check back in tomorrow.  You won't be missing much.

For those of you that noticed the intraday mini-spike in bond yields, I'm afraid I don't have much more for you.  We discussed this in detail in MBS Live and I spent most of the Huddle video time discussing it as well.  Ultimately, there was no good case to be made for correlation with British markets, news, data, events, or the stock market (even though I saw several other analysts say otherwise.  Watch the video if you think you might agree with them). 

The best explanations involve boring things like technical stop loss levels for curve traders (i.e. trading programs with triggers based on the gap between two flavors of US Treasury Note/Bond, such as 5yr vs 30yr Treasuries).  The net effect around the noon hour was a bit of a snowball sell-off that took 10yr yields 1bp higher in 10 minutes, or 3bps higher over the course of 3 hours.  Neither milestone is overly impressive, but the weakness was notable on an otherwise boring day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-15 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6300 : +0.0200
Pricing as of 3/14/19 5:13PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:10PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For a Few Lenders
10:20AM  :  Modest Improvement After New Home Sales Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ted Rood  :  "Would depend on pricing difference between 30-45-60 days, but much/most of any potential risk is offset by better pricing on shorter locks."
E S  :  "PL, until we break above 2.63, there is some minimal risk in floating and as JA said also, the range is narrow, losses would be limited"
Peter Lassig II  :  "ES & JA, why are you two floating 60-days out?"
E S  :  "2nd'd"
Jason Anker  :  "floating"
Dustin McAlister  :  "it is your personal purchase closing in 60 days. you locking or floating today?"
Matthew Graham  :  "Treasuries moving more than GBP or GB 10yr. So it's not looking like Brexit headlines. Twitter is silent. No concomitant move in stocks or EU markets."
Matthew Graham  :  "none so far"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Any news on this movement?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Not liking this"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Mar 14
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Feb +0.6 0.1 -0.6
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Feb 0.6 0.3 -0.5
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.776 1.775 1.755
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 229 225 223
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Jan -6.9 -0.6 3.7
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Jan 0.607 0.620 0.621
Friday, Mar 15
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Mar 10.00 8.80
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Feb 78.4 78.2
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Feb 0.4 -0.6
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Mar 2.6
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Mar 2.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Mar 95.3 93.8