Today brought the Retail Sales report, which was responsible for a fairly big reaction the last time it came out.  This time around, the reaction was almost undetectable.  Granted, that likely has a lot to do with the fact that it was much closer to consensus, or that the previous month was revised lower.  But even then, traders COULD have used it as an excuse to sell bonds.  

In addition to Retail Sales, there were other excuses to sell. 

  • Stocks had a great day, with the S&P moving up more than 30 points intraday.   
  • The 3yr Treasury auction was on the weaker side at 1pm
  • There are 2 more Treasury auctions coming up over the next 2 days--something that often sees a bit of weakness in the preceding days

Although there was perhaps some acknowledgement of the stock surge and certain a few minutes of weakness following the 3yr auction, bonds generally held their ground with 10yr yields respecting a ceiling of 2.65% during the domestic session.  Bottom line: the day's trading range may have been narrow, but the fact that it remained narrow in the face of selling cues is a positive sign.

Tomorrow brings CPI data, which will only be interesting for bonds if it falls far from forecasts (core y/y currently seen at 2.2% vs 2.2% previously).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
100-14 : -0-02
10 YR
2.6410 : +0.0160
Pricing as of 3/11/19 4:37PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:39AM  :  Slightly Weaker Overnight, Indecisive After Stronger Retail Sales Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Timothy Baron  :  "Sounds unicorny , HWP."
Hugh W. Page  :  "I heard a guy on Bloomberg this morning come in with a Q1 estimate at about 1.7%"
Victor Burek  :  "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.2 percent on March 11, down from 0.5 percent on March 8."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Mar 11
8:30 Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Jan 0.9 0.3 -1.8
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jan 0.2 0.0 -1.2
Tuesday, Mar 12
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Feb 2.2 2.2
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Feb 0.2 0.0
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 24