It may seem a bit counter-intuitive to be talking up economic data in light of last week's bond sell-off.  Friday saw weaker-than-expected consumer spending and sentiment as well as the lowest ISM Manufacturing PMI in more than 2 years.  Nonetheless, bonds continued to weaken.  

Rather than read those events as a suggestion that "data doesn't matter," I think it's more fair to say that markets were preoccupied with other things--not the least of which being a 3-day snowball move that was arguably pushed along by economic data on the first 2 days.

While we may continue to see such moves, and while there are several non-data headlines that could have a big impact on rates (on topics like US/China trade or Brexit, for instance), we definitely shouldn't assume this market is tuned out from econ data.  In fact, I'd argue that last week was an exception to what should soon prove to be the rule: that econ data will set the tone for the next big move in rates.

When we talk about "big" in the current context, we're talking about 10yr yields moving to 3.0% or 2.5%.  One of those two options is highly likely this Spring.  Between now and then, we can watch more intermediate levels as mileposts for the range.  At the moment, yields are just below the 2.75% technical ceiling.  This would be the top of a slightly wider range with 2.63% being the lower boundary. 

2019-3-5 open

Momentum indicators suggest we've seen just enough weakness recently for bonds to be willing to rally.  Whether or not they actually do rally may depend on today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data--this week's 2nd most important economic release behind Friday's NFP.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
99-26 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7440 : +0.0220
Pricing as of 3/5/19 9:08AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 05
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Feb 59.9 59.7
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Feb 57.3 56.7
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Dec -8.7 16.9
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Dec 0.600 0.657