Heading into today, if you were hoping to see rates move lower, it would have made sense to hope for economic data to come in weaker than expected.  There is one scenario, however, where weaker data arrives in the middle of a multi-day bond market rout and only serves as a minor stumbling block for determined sellers.  In those cases, the stumbling blocks can vary in size.  In today's case, sellers hurdled right over it and kept on selling.

As far as confirmation of bearish momentum goes, this is about as obvious as it gets.  After all, we had the weakest ISM PMI readings in more than a year (which the price/inflation component being the weakest in 3 years) and bonds weren't even able to break back in to yesterday's range!

10yr yields bounced HARD at yesterday's big volume ceiling (2.73%), treating it as floor today.  Actually it wasn't so much a floor as a trampoline.  By the end of the session, 10's had climbed above 2.75% pivot point.  This sets us up for an important confirmation or rejection on Monday.  If yields continue operating over 2.75%, it would increase the odds of negative momentum remaining intact.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
99-27 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7570 : +0.0460
Pricing as of 3/1/19 5:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:20PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
10:20AM  :  Patience or Panic as Weak Data Struggles to Inspire Bonds
8:42AM  :  Inflation Data Does No Harm, But Other Things Still Could

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, straight up baker's chocolate"
aaron meyer  :  "none whatsoever"
Matt Hodges  :  "there was no sugar coating on that Huddle, MG"
Matthew Graham  :  "
New MBS Huddle Released
Things Are Getting Serious (In a Bad Way) For Bonds"
scott weinstein  :  "5 day chart brings back memories"
Matthew Graham  :  "BOSTIC SAYS WOULD NOT WANT TO RULE OUT ANY CENTRAL BANK TOOL, INCLUDING NEGATIVE RATES, AHEAD OF A FUTURE CRISIS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S BOSTIC SAYS NOT CLEAR WHETHER WEAKNESS SO FAR IS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS OR A SIGN OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SLOWING"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 01
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Dec +1.9 1.9 1.9
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Feb 49.4 51.5 49.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 93.8 95.7 95.5
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Feb 54.2 55.5 56.6