The "big" news over the weekend was the announcement of an extension on US/China tariffs that were set to go into effect on March 1st.  While an eventual trade deal would still be a big development for both sides of the market, the extension was only worth a modest in-range correction for bonds.  The fact that the range is still so perfectly intact suggests this wasn't the news bonds were looking for.

2019-2-25 open

The rest of the week will stand a better chance to argue for a break of the prevailing range.  There is a healthy amount of economic data, even if few reports are top tier in terms of market movement potential.  Of the actual economic reports, the biggest deal is likely Friday's ISM Manufacturing report.  Thursday's GDP sounds like a big deal, but keep in mind that it's in reference to Q4, 2018.  Not only is that time frame getting fairly old as far as econ data is concerned, it's also quite possibly tainted by the government shutdown.  In other words, investors will be more interested in Q1 GDP, which we won't get until April.

If we expand our search beyond economic data, we find the week's probable headliner in the form of Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony.  The Fed has been all over the place since December with the past few weeks, in particular, seeing the rapid introduction of the sorts of big ideas that are normally rolled out more slowly.  Powell has a chance to refocus the Fed's underlying mission statement this week.  This could certainly increase the market's predisposition to move in one direction or the other, but remember, the ultimate direction of that move will depend on economic developments (US and foreign economic data) and fiscal developments that will likely impact the global economy (like trade war news, which we likely won't get this week).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-09 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6810 : +0.0260
Pricing as of 2/25/19 9:07AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 25
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Dec 0.3
11:30 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 40
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 41
Tuesday, Feb 26
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Dec 3.2
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Dec 4.5
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Dec 1.290 1.322
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Dec 1.250 1.256
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Dec 4.5 4.7
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Dec 5.8
10:00 Consumer confidence * Feb 124.7 120.2
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32
Wednesday, Feb 27
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 232.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1084.4
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jan 99.0
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jan 0.4 -2.2
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Dec 0.5 -0.6
Thursday, Feb 28
8:30 GDP Prelim (%)* Q4 2.3 3.5
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.733 1.725
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 216
9:45 Chicago PMI * Feb 57.0 56.7
Friday, Mar 01
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Dec 1.9 1.9
8:30 Labor Costs Preliminary (%) Q4 1.7 0.9
8:30 Productivity Preliminary (%) Q4 1.7 2.2
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Feb 51.5 49.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 95.7 95.5
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Feb 2.3
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Feb 55.5 56.6
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Feb 2.5