Since Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today?  This question seemed to have been answered when bonds apparently jumped following this morning's 8:30am economic data. 

The only problem was that the data in question included NY Fed Manufacturing and Import/Export Prices.  These are not reports that tend to cause such immediate and highly correlated movement.  So what gives?

For better or worse, I stare at a tick by tick stream of bond data for most of the day.  Anyone else who spends their lives in such a manner would also surely have seen bonds on the move in 2 distinct ways well in advance of 8:30am.  The first was a more general move that began with the European trading session.  While it was general and relatively slow, it was nonetheless clearly defined (both stocks and bonds began moving higher exactly as European trading began, and had been flat throughout Asian hours).

The second was a specific move that began in line with the 8:20am CME open.  We often see moves like this at 8:20am--especially on quieter days (like those ahead of a 3-day weekend).  In this case, it wasn't very big and it didn't last very long.  CME-driven moves tend to wash out if nothing else makes a case for the same trading bias.  As such, yields quickly moved back toward unchanged levels, thus remaining well inside the prevailing sideways range.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-05 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6660 : +0.0070
Pricing as of 2/15/19 3:42PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:44AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Add to Overnight Weakness Before and After Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "MP you are example #4 on the VA Guaranty Calculation Examples"
Matt Hodges  :  "ding ding"
Jason Gard  :  "500,000 - 484,350 = 15,650 x 25% = 3912.50"
McKay Platt  :  "VA question/scenario: Purchase price of 500K. County conforming limit of 484,350. Borrower has full eligibility. If my memory serves correct, he can't do 100% financing over the county limit, right? If so, what's the calculation to determine what he has to bring in as a down payment?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Feb 15
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Jan -0.6 -0.1 -0.6
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Jan -0.5 -0.1 -1.0
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Feb 8.8 7.00 3.90
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Jan 78.2 78.7 78.7
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Jan -0.6 0.1 0.3
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Feb 2.3 2.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Feb 95.5 93.0 91.2
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Feb 2.5 2.7
Monday, Feb 18
0:00 Presidents Day *
Tuesday, Feb 19
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Feb 59 58