I have to stretch to make a day like today interesting.  As I'm fond of doing, I could easily label this one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays.  That description still works as 10yr yields were only 2bps higher and Fannie 4.0 MBS lost less than an eighth of a point.  There were no significant economic reports, no major news stories, and no relevant market-moving developments.  

Still, if we really want to, we can glean a very small warning from the trading activity.  Simply put, we've been tracking a consolidating range of lower highs and higher lows in bond markets.  In terms of 10yr Treasury candlesticks, it would look something like the yellow lines below.

2019-2-11 update

As the chart suggests, today brought us a modest bounce just as Friday's gains threatened to break below the lower trend line.  This sort of reinforcement for the range is more bad than good, provided it's occurring at the lower line.  If it were a ceiling bounce, the implications would be reversed and it would be a good sign.  Granted, we don't have more than one recent example of a similar bounce, but past examples suggest days like today have a better-than-average chance of bringing along at least one more day of selling. 

Keep in mind, however, that "better than average" isn't much of a guarantee when it comes to financial markets.  We're talking about probabilities in the 51-55% range.  All that to say, we could still rally tomorrow, but all other things being equal, we should be more worried about weakness if we're playing the range.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
102-07 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6540 : +0.0220
Pricing as of 2/11/19 4:25PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:56AM  :  Bonds Respecting Range, But Trying to Avoid Panic

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Dan Frey  :  "I came to the right place. Thanks Brian, et al."
Brian McFarlane  :  "Last I heard <620 Freddie was either Ginnie direct, or DiTech"