Chinese markets were closed overnight for New Year.  This slowed trade somewhat.  Coupled with a lack of significant economic data this morning, it also put more emphasis on the events from the previous trading day.  In this case, that previous day was Friday.  That's when a series of economic reports (including the mighty jobs report as well as another heavy hitter, ISM Manufacturing) came out much stronger than expected.

Stronger data isn't always a death knell for bonds, but it stung a bit more than normal this time around due to the Fed Announcement from 3 days prior.  The Fed had just finished making a case for an easier monetary stance due to global growth concerns.  And while that was probably a cop out intended to cover for a nagging fear of a big stock market sell-off (they can deny it all they want, but they're only human), they nonetheless reiterated their stance that upcoming economic data would be doubly important.  

I'm guessing the Fed was like 99% of the rest of the market watchers out there in that they never expected nonfarm payrolls to crush its forecast by as much as it did.  Even then, bond traders were willing to be patient until the 10am data.  But once that data also came in universally stronger, it was game over for recent rate lows.  This morning's trade was simply an extension of Friday morning's momentum, and now we find ourselves back in line with levels from just before Wednesday's Fed Announcement.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 4.0
101-31 : -0-03
10 YR
2.7290 : +0.0380
Pricing as of 2/4/19 4:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:46AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Jumpy Lenders Could Already be Thinking of Reprices

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Nathan Miller  :  "friday yet?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 04
9:45 ISM-New York index * Jan 855.1 848.5
10:00 Factory ex-transp mm (% )* Nov -1.3 0.3
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Nov -0.6 0.2 -2.1
Tuesday, Feb 05
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Jan 59.5 59.9
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jan 57.2 57.6
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 38