Back on January 18th, stocks made it as high as they've been able to make it since early December.  From there, they ebbed a bit and traded sideways for several more days before reapproaching those highs last Friday.  Breaking above those highs would have been technically significant (i.e. it may have served as a cue for more positive momentum).  With the temporary shutdown plan announced with only hours left in the day, that made this week highly uncertain.

But rather than stampede up and over the overhead ceiling, stocks moved steadily lower overnight and then more sharply lower in the morning hours.  Corporate earnings played a part as did oil price weakness and another downbeat speech from ECB President Mario Draghi.  Bond markets didn't object, and soon found themselves back in positive territory after beginning the day slightly weaker.  The afternoon's strong 5yr Treasury auction helped reinforce the gains.

All of the above is occurring well inside a fairly flat and narrow range, however, both for stocks and bonds.  There's still a major sense of uncertainty heading into this week's scheduled events (Fed on Wed and NFP on Fri) as well as the unscheduled events (all the backlogged data from the shutdown).  The latter won't likely see the light of day this week.  And while that won't necessarily prevent markets from reacting to the Fed and NFP, it could deprive those reactions of some of their potency.  

Long story short, this week has gone from "highly uncertain" on the approach to "still highly uncertain" as it gets underway.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-26 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7480 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 1/28/19 5:14PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:59AM  :  Draghi/Stocks Helping Bonds Offset Supply Jitters

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Spencer Packer  :  "I imagine they received a lot less apps from the 22nd until today though. Probably not as bad as it sounds."
Brian McFarlane  :  "USDA is toast for the time being. I called the status line for my state, and as of today, they are working on apps received on Dec 18th."
Hugh W. Page  :  "USDA folks just got into work this morning so they're still going thru the 100,000+ emails they likely received during the shutdown. Might be awhile :)"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Hopefully less than 3 weeks."
Michael Baker  :  "USDA back up and running with end of Gov't Shut Down? Anybody talk to USDA and have an idea of turn times?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jan 28
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 41
Tuesday, Jan 29
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Nov 4.9 5.0
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Nov 0.4 0.4
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jan 124.9 128.1
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32