While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the "minutes" from the most recent Fed meeting.  These will provide a more detailed account of the conversation that took place in the Dec 18/19th meeting that resulted in the market-moving Fed announcement on the afternoon of the 19th.  

At the time, markets were hoping for a more dovish reading from the Fed.  Specifically, stocks were mistakenly hoping the Fed might see its way clear to holding off on hiking rates or by including more conciliatory verbiage to sooth the nerves of equities investors.  Bonds were simply participating in reality and were largely interested in the stock market reaction anyway.

Today's minutes release may offer a glimpse of increased dovishness among Fed members, even if that dovishness didn't make it into the official statement.  Since bonds have a good sense of where the Fed stands, any dovish clarification in the minutes may be more of an event for stocks.  That said, bonds are interested in what stocks are doing, so it would really be an event for both sides of the market.

Before that, bonds will have to digest the year's first 10yr Treasury auction.  As always, this can connote some selling pressure (all other things being equal) heading into the auction with the auction results setting the tone for the momentum heading into the Fed Minutes an hour later.

From a technical standpoint, bonds would like to hold under the ceiling just tagged this morning (2.75%).  After that, 2.82% would be the bigger deal in terms of supportive ceilings.  That's where we'd hope to see any negative momentum run its course and give way to a sideways consolidation, thus helping cement the big move down from 3.26% in late 2018.  Momentum metrics suggest we're definitely not out of the woods.

2019-1-9 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-30 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7260 : +0.0110
Pricing as of 1/9/19 9:24AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jan 09
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 729.9
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 219.0
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
14:00 FOMC Minutes *