Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields.  As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of 2.82%.  Despite multiple attempts, yields never managed to confirm a break below that floor (they closed at 2.812% on one day in August, but would have needed to remain below 2.82% the following day in order to "confirm" from a technical standpoint.

Today's chart doesn't include all of that history, but suffice it to say that no one would need a background in technical analysis to identify 2.82% as the only candidate for the bottom of the range before last week.

On Fed day, yields ran all the way down to 2.75% before bouncing back up to 2.82% the next day.  This effectively set the post-Fed range (2.75%-2.82)%.  We've only traded outside that range for a few brief moments in the last 5 days, and today's overnight rally is merely a move from one end of the range to the other.  

Bottom line, while we can certainly read some caution into the floor at 2.75% (as well as anything that looks like a sustainable bounce in stocks), we're still biding time inside this range--possibly until the new year, which will stands a good chance to be more volatile than normal.

2018-12-27 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-19 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7560 : -0.0410
Pricing as of 12/27/18 9:07AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Dec 27
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 217 214
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.665 1.688
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Oct 0.2
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Oct 6.0
10:00 Consumer confidence * Dec 133.7 135.7
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32