There have been two distinct phases to the bond market rally that followed yesterday's speech by Fed Chair Powell.  The first was fairly logical in that shorter-term debt outperformed yesterday afternoon.  That's logical because the Fed Funds Rate has the biggest impact on short-term debt like 2yr Treasury yields. 

The second phase saw a bit of a reversal to that outperformance--or rather, it saw longer-term debt (like 10yr Treasuries) catch back up.   It's far less of a given that the overnight rally was all about Powell, though some of it certainly was.  

Bonds hit the domestic session at the best levels in months.  Domestic traders had already reacted to Powell, and were unsurprisingly not willing to chase the price action implied by the overnight moves.  It was a slow, steady grind back toward higher yields, pretty much all day.  Refreshingly, that grind never moved quickly enough to threaten bonds with a move back into negative territory on the day.  As such, we ended the day at the lowest closing yields in months, even though they weren't quite as low as today's opening yields.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-16 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0330 : -0.0110
Pricing as of 11/29/18 5:00PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:06PM  :  Dovish Fed Minutes Not Much Help For Bonds
1:34PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Jumpy Lenders
11:32AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Heads-Up: MBS At Weakest Levels of The Day
8:41AM  :  AM Data Endorses Overnight Rally

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "pretty dovish minutes"
Matthew Graham  :  "A COUPLE OF FED POLICYMAKERS SAID CURRENT POLICY MAY BE NEAR ITS NEUTRAL LEVEL AND FURTHER HIKES COULD UNDULY SLOW THE ECONOMY -MINUTES"
Matthew Graham  :  "FED POLICYMAKERS SAID STATEMENT IN COMING MEETINGS MIGHT NEED CHANGES, PARTICULARLY IN LANGUAGE REGARDING NEED FOR 'FURTHER GRADUAL INCREASES' IN RATES -MINUTES"
Matthew Graham  :  "MANY FED POLICYMAKERS SAID IT MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE AT SOME UPCOMING MEETINGS TO BEGIN PUTTING GREATER EMPHASIS ON EVALUATING INCOMING DATA WHEN ASSESSING THE POLICY OUTLOOK -MINUTES"
Matthew Graham  :  "ALMOST ALL FED POLICYMAKERS SAID RATE HIKES LIKELY WARRANTED 'FAIRLY SOON' IF U.S. JOB AND INFLATION DATA WERE IN LINE WITH OR STRONGER THAN FED'S CURRENT EXPECTATIONS - MINUTES OF FED'S NOV 7-8 POLICY MEETING"
Dustin McAlister  :  "Chapter 4 changes and additions, was presented at May 2018 VA conference"
Dustin McAlister  :  "slide 33"
Dustin McAlister  :  "last lender conference, one of the items they are changing to but it isn't in handbook yet. Like when they changed short sale rules back in 2014 i believe but didn't put anything in there for like 2 years. If you email an RLC directly they will tell you that you can use it."
Lenny Ujkic  :  "VA isn't at 125% just yet .. it was announced but I haven't seen a lender use it YET"
Dustin McAlister  :  "va moved to flat 125%"
Bryan Smith  :  "SS income. Gross up. 15% Conventional and 25% FHA?"
Matthew Graham  :  "
New MBS Huddle Released
How to Play The Unexpected Bond Market Strength"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 29
8:30 Core PCE (y/y) (%)* Oct +1.8 1.9 2.0
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 234 220 224
10:00 Pending Sales Index Oct 102.1 104.6
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Oct -2.6 0.5 0.5
Friday, Nov 30
9:45 Chicago PMI * Nov 58.0 58.4