I use the baseball/lead-off analogy quite a bit to refer to a range breakout that occurs before the important event that is most likely to cause a breakout.  In the current case, that event is actually a series of events culminating in next week's Jobs Report. 

Next week is important in a general sense because it's the first week of December, and it marks the start of the final approach to the end of the 2018 trading year.  The first 3 weeks of December frequently see an uptick in bond market momentum.  Individual focal points frequently include the jobs report and the Fed announcement that follows roughly 2 weeks later.

With the sideways momentum strongly intact on the first 3 days of this week, we were getting closer and closer to that first week of December.  But as of this morning, bonds may be interested in taking a lead-off.

2018-11-29 Open

As the chart suggests, such a lead-off morphs the previous sideways trend into a rally trend.  It also keeps the shift in short-term momentum at bay (blue/red lines, with the last notable spike from flat levels highlighted in late August).  

Keep in mind though: it's a rally trend as of today!  Tomorrow could change that.  As soon as we see a momentum shift like the one in August, it will be time to get more defensive.  If that spike arrives before next week's jobs report, I would only get as defensive as I needed to get, on the chance that the jobs data reinvigorates the rally.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-19 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0260 : -0.0180
Pricing as of 11/29/18 9:40AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 29
8:30 Consumer Spending (Consumption) (%) Oct 0.4 0.4
8:30 Core PCE (y/y) (%)* Oct 1.9 2.0
8:30 Personal Income (%)* Oct 0.4 0.2
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 224
10:00 Pending Sales Index Oct 104.6
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Oct 0.5 0.5