Builder Confidence doesn't typically move markets, but today it did. For the past several month's, the NAHB's Housing Market Index (generally considered tantamount to "builder confidence") looked like it was bucking the consensus among other housing data that all but verified a decisive cooling trend.  But it made up for its recent lack of movement today.  It's as if builder confidence did't get the memo on the shift in housing and suddenly rushed to catch up.

This resulted in bond market improvement and stock losses, and that's a very tall order for this data.  It speaks to two things.  First, markets are indeed concerned about the housing market and the role it could play in a broader economic shift.  Many see such a shift beginning within 12 months at this point.  Second, it's Thanksgiving week and liquidity is already lightening.  Lighter liquidity means that any given move can be a bit bigger than it otherwise might be.

Stocks continued losing ground after the first 37 minutes of the move that followed the housing data.  Bonds refused to go much lower and ultimately ended the day right in line with those 10:37AM levels.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 4.0
100-07 : -0-03
10 YR
3.0630 : -0.0110
Pricing as of 11/19/18 6:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:12AM  :  A Builder Confidence Report Bad Enough to Help Bonds!

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "agreed. It feels dangerous to get too hopeful, but hard to deny a shift in the air"
Sung Kim  :  "the narrative is rapidly changing, pretty awesome"
Sung Kim  :  "Been bouncing off it for the past 1 hour. The force is strong"
Matthew Graham  :  "it's right on the line"
Chris Stevens  :  "MG- Did the S&P hit your lower consolidation line today"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 19
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Nov 60 67 68
Tuesday, Nov 20
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Oct 1.7
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Oct 1.225 1.201
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Oct -5.3
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Oct 1.267 1.270