The narrative has grown (remained?) the same for bonds lately.  If stocks are losing ground, then it's time to rally.  If stocks are stabilizing or recovering, it's time to sell.  Today was more of the same in that regard.

For the first few hours of the day, yields moved gradually higher despite the inability of core inflation to even meet forecast levels (in its defense, it was really really close!).  But when stocks began losing ground in a fairly convincing way, bonds began to improve.

Stock losses were compounded by headlines surrounding the Brexit process, where there was apparently some drama today regarding Theresa May's cabinet and its ability to agree on the current draft proposal.  After a few conflicting reports, it finally came out that there was sufficient agreement.  British currency snapped back to previous levels, but US equities only bounced modestly.  As such, bonds were able to maintain most of their stock-inspired gains by the close. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-29 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
3.1250 : -0.0200
Pricing as of 11/14/18 4:56PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:06PM  :  Stocks, Brexit Headlines Helping Bonds
8:38AM  :  CPI Cooler Than Expected at Core Level; It Might Not Be Enough

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "It was never the biggest motivation for the rally, or at least there was a good chance it wasn't the biggest motivation (and this lack of reaction would confirm that)."
Peter Lassig II  :  "MG: Why do you think that isn't weighing more on Bonds? Domestic issues?"
Matthew Graham  :  "MAY HAS SECURED CABINET SUPPORT FOR HER BREXIT DEAL: TELEGRAPH"
Sung Kim  :  "crude oil also giving up some gains"
Matthew Graham  :  "definitely Brexit headline driving this."
Sung Kim  :  "whats Europe doing MG?"
Victor Burek  :  "PM canceled her speech tonight"
Sung Kim  :  "sold off big within the past 30 min"
Victor Burek  :  "some of this may be brexit related"
Nathan Miller  :  "si, yesterday’s huddles said floor/resistance 3.13 then 3.06 is up"
Timothy Baron  :  "Is 3.13 still a relevant level to watch?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 14
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 220.8 213.6
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 824.7 861.8
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Oct +2.1 2.2 2.2
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Oct +0.3 0.3 0.1
Thursday, Nov 15
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Oct 0.5 0.1
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Oct 0.1 0.0
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Oct 0.1 0.5
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Nov 20.00 21.10
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 212 214
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Sep 0.3 0.5