CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back.  Reason being: NFP contained a strong wage growth component, and that always generates some fear among bond traders that higher wages will translate to higher inflation.  Economists aren't exactly expecting a big uptick in tomorrow's CPI data, but that's precisely why it's been something of a risk.

In other words, if CPI were to come in much stronger than expected tomorrow morning, it could dampen spirits in the bond market.  Of course CPI could always come in weaker too--which would cast even more doubt on the ability of wages to translate to inflation in the current economic cycle.  It's not that it hasn't been happening, just that it hasn't been happening as fast as it used to.

Then there's the matter of third variables.  For instance, yesterday and today's stock losses seem to have gone a long way toward getting the bond market in a more optimistic stance heading into tomorrow.  If CPI doesn't carry big implications (i.e. no big beat or miss), it could be stocks--once again--that set the tone.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-24 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
3.1410 : -0.0480
Pricing as of 11/13/18 4:50PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:46AM  :  Bonds Boosted by Several Headlines

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Timothy Baron  :  "I think there is a still a significant psychological aspect of an inverted yield curve for some market participants. And economies are built and wrecked on confidence or lack thereof. So it still matters, even if it doesn't really matter."
Matthew Graham  :  "it could mean a big recession or a little one. and so on.."
Matthew Graham  :  "it could mean recession is imminent, or that it will happen in 2 years."
Matthew Graham  :  "historically it has been, but the fallout from it is very hit and miss in terms of timing and magnitude."
Nathan Miller  :  "so is the 2yr & 10yr meeting up really that big of a deal? the guy running my CE class won't stop talking about it"
Ted Rood  :  "Does it state "40K seller credit in lieu of fixing knob/tube electrical system and mold remediation"?"
Jason Anker  :  "lol, just got a contract with a 40k seller credit"
Sung Kim  :  "oil futures now down 6%+"
Ted Rood  :  "Nice to see treasury yields moving below the 25 day moving average for a change."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 14
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 213.6
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 861.8
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Oct 2.2 2.2
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Oct 0.3 0.1