It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day.  Today was a Fed day!  We talked about the outside possibility of the Fed statement having an impact on markets.  Markets indeed made SOME movement, but looked at under anything less powerful than a microscope, today's moves were fairly small.  Still, it did seem that bonds were leveling off before the Fed only to move higher in yield afterward.  So, did the Fed matter after all?

Some traders took the absence of change in the statement to mean the Fed isn't worried about recent stock market weakness or trade-related uncertainty. The supposed implication is that the Fed was unfriendly to rates today because they didn't say anything new and rate-friendly, but that's a big stretch.

More likely than not, markets are simply circling the wagons ahead of a 3-day weekend for Veterans Day.  By that, I mean that traders are squaring up positions (closing bets/cashing-in chips) or simply putting on new, defensive positions in bonds (making new bets on higher rates)--both the sorts of things you might do when yields are pushing up against an 8-year ceiling (and shorter-dated yields are at a decades-long ceiling!).  

There is a smattering of 2nd tier econ data tomorrow, but the bigger focus is shifting to next Wednesday's Consumer Price Index.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-17 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
3.2410 : +0.0280
Pricing as of 11/8/18 5:00PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:30PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely
2:25PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Weakest Levels Now; Reprice Risk Considerations
2:04PM  :  Initial Reaction to Fed Announcement: Ho-Hum
10:43AM  :  Slightly Weaker Since NYSE Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "many different assets need to correct a bit before we can march on"
Sung Kim  :  "the sooner and faster the fed hikes, the sooner and faster my pipeline and your pipeline will grow"
Sung Kim  :  "what normal people wake up the first Friday of every month hoping for a complete collapse in employment?"
Sung Kim  :  "we might be the only industry in the world that wishes death and destruction"
aaron meyer  :  "is there ever good news to report?"
Ted Rood  :  "Snoozer"
Matthew Graham  :  "FED REPEATS NEAR-TERM RISKS TO THE ECONOMY APPEAR "ROUGHLY BALANCED""
Matthew Graham  :  "FED REPEATS EXPECTS FURTHER GRADUAL INCREASES IN FED FUNDS RATE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH SUSTAINED ECONOMIC EXPANSION, STRONG JOBS MARKET AND INFLATION OBJECTIVE"
Matthew Graham  :  "FED REPEATS INFLATION REMAINS NEAR 2 PCT, LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS LITTLE CHANGED"
Matthew Graham  :  "FED SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RISING AT STRONG RATE; GROWTH OF BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT HAS MODERATED FROM ITS RAPID PACE EARLIER IN THE YEAR"
Matthew Graham  :  "FED KEEPS TARGET INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 2-2.25 PCT"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 08
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 214 214 214
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 2.125 2.125 2.125
Friday, Nov 09
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Oct 0.2 0.2
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Oct 2.3 2.5
10:00 Wholesale sales mm (%) Sep 0.5 0.8
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Sep 0.3 0.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Nov 98.0 98.6
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Nov 2.9
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Nov 2.4