While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds simply continued doing what they've been doing since October 28th.  That's when stocks and bond yields bottomed out in a move that was driven exclusively by heavy selling in stocks.

Since then, they've been bouncing back slowly but surely.  Friday's NFP reaction threw a bit of a wrench in the works as neither stocks nor bonds appreciated the implication of faster/more Fed rate hikes.  There was a bit of healing yesterday as both sides of the market rallied.  Today, however, it was back to the same old business of rates and stocks moving in the same direction.  Today, that direction happened to be higher.

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It remains to be seen just how much of an impact the midterm election results will have, but without a shadow of a doubt, the range of potential impacts is somewhere between "none" and "some."  Noticeably absent from that list is "a ton," but stranger things have happened.  Still, I think if we see a ton of reaction it will have more to do with the technical levels that the election could cause either side of the market to cross.  Both seem to be waiting for any sort of sign before making a bigger move back to early October levels.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-18 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
3.2314 : +0.0324
Pricing as of 11/6/18 5:35PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:39PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly
1:09PM  :  10yr Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Find Ceiling
9:45AM  :  Bonds Move Into Negative Territory at NYSE Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Dominick Cordone  :  "3.23 is dumb. That's my vote."
Matthew Graham  :  "Solid A. C+ in the context of super high rates"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE 24.96 PCT OF U.S. 10-YEAR NOTES SALE, DIRECT 1.22 PCT AND INDIRECT 73.83 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 10-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.54, NON-COMP BIDS $47.18 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $27 BLN 10-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.209 PCT, AWARDS 18.43 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Matthew Graham  :  "Auction preview: This is a refunding auction, which tends to get a lower bid-to-cover (2.42x average vs 2.52x for other auctions. They also tend to come in about half a bp over the 1pm WI, which is running around 3.220 currently). Indirect bid% has been around 62-63%. Decode all this jargon here if needed: Treasury Auction Jargon, Definition, and Significance "
John Tassios  :  "MG, any pre auction notes?"
Rob Clark  :  "That was addressed in chat around 9 am."
Brent Borcherding  :  "Doesn't matter."
William Hansen  :  "Who do we want to win in regards to helping rates . Dem or Rep?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 06
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 27
Wednesday, Nov 07
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 884.2
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 224.9
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)* 19