Today had the look and feel of a summertime Monday--the first we've seen since--well...summertime!  Volume was much lighter than it has been in weeks, and volatility was fairly nonexistent.  If we consider that Friday's sell-off may have had a bit of extra urgency behind it due to the impending weekend, then today was essentially a 3rd day of the weekend.

Does that mean we'll see more activity tomorrow?  Not necessarily!  If there's a calendar event that's keeping trading ranges and volumes contained, it's probably the mid-term election results.  Those probably won't be fully in play until Wednesday.  That said, it's all too common to see a big move arrive the day before everyone expects it, so anything is possible.

As to whether or not the elections merit a big response in markets, that remains to be seen.  Aggregate polls suggest  a close call in the House with a slight edge to Democrats (but not enough of an edge for assumptions).  My sense has been and continues to be that democratic control of the House would be a net-positive for rates as it would make it harder for the government to spend money (something that's hurt rates perhaps more than anything over the past year) and create some general political uncertainty (also generally good for rates).  

Note: the previous paragraph is what I would come up with if forced to comment on ifs and thens.  It's possible that we see no significant reaction whatsoever.  Still, today's consolidation and absence of volatility suggest traders are also waiting to see if other traders care about the results.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-20 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
3.2008 : -0.0132
Pricing as of 11/5/18 5:18PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:05AM  :  Bonds Holding Early Gains After ISM Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ted Rood  :  "In case anyone is unaware, Market Newsletters is a FREE, excellent social networking/CRM tool for MBS Live subscribers. More details here: http://marketnewsletters.com/"
Sung Kim  :  "Mark - for sure it is on the Market Newsletter sent every friday"
Mark Kent  :  "MG, Remind me of where I need to look on the website for what the average 5 yr ARM pricing is in the market right now"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 05
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Oct 60.3 59.3 61.6
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Oct 62.5 64.5 65.2
Tuesday, Nov 06
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 27