Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned.  Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs report.  It came out quite a bit higher than expected.  There were no noticeable downsides.  And the increasingly important wage growth component rose to its highest year-over-year level since before the recession.

No one would be mad at the labor market if it simply decided to level-off around a job count of 125-150k, which would be more than enough to keep the unemployment rate pegged to the floor.    The fact that job growth is accelerating is cause for concern in the bond market, and that concern is evident in today's rate surge.  It's really that simple--nothing to do with "trade optimism" or whatever it is that the average news article is chalking today's move up to.  

Batten down hatches for another potential challenge of long-term highs in Treasury yields next week.  For whatever it's worth, there are some well-respected analysts out there who think bonds are still in the process of putting in a ceiling around 3.25%, and that we won't necessarily go much higher than that.  You know what they say about predictions though.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
99-18 : -0-18
Treasuries
10 YR
3.2198 : +0.0758
Pricing as of 11/2/18 7:28PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:54PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming Likely
11:31AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
10:27AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Weakest Levels; Negative Reprice Considerations
8:36AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Strong NFP; Bond Yields Rising

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Scott Valins  :  "no sugar coating in that huddle"
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "brutal"
Nathan Miller  :  "soo last week was cool"
Ted Rood  :  "Early Black Friday special"
B - C  :  "early xmas gift"
Ted Rood  :  "negative reprice in 3, 2, 1...."
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "how is my pricing marginally better than yesterday? locking new files in now..."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Nov 02
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Oct +0.2 0.2 0.3
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Oct +250 190 134
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Oct 3.7 3.7 3.7