Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds.  It didn't begin that way, however.  Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in the first hour and a half of domestic trading.  Early economic data was largely ignored.

At 9:30am, bonds started improving.  Based on the timing, we can assume ETF trading played a key role as investors put on new trading positions for the new month.  Stocks were also losing ground heading into 10am and that seemed to have a complimentary effect on bonds.  Notably, bonds continued to fare well even as stocks bounced and moved higher by the end of the day.  

This leaves us with some evidence for a ceiling at 10yr yield levels near 3.16-3.17% and a floor at 3.06% based on the big bounce seen at the beginning of the week.  Given that we're currently closer to the ceiling, caution is warranted from a lock/float standpoint.  

Tomorrow brings the important NFP data--the big jobs report that includes the nonfarm payroll count, unemployment rate, and wage growth data.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-03 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
3.1341 : -0.0249
Pricing as of 11/1/18 4:53PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:13AM  :  ISM Manufacturing Lower Than Expected. Bonds Are OK With It
9:07AM  :  This Was Almost an Alert
8:42AM  :  Early Econ Data a Non-Event

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
E S  :  "Trump said he talked to Xi on the phone, trade talks coming along well."
Hugh W. Page  :  "Been out of the office and get back to a board lit up like a Christmas Tree in GREEN!"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 01
8:30 Productivity Preliminary (%) Q3 2.2 2.2 2.9
8:30 Labor Costs Preliminary (%) Q3 1.2 1.0 -1.0
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 214 213 215
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Oct 57.7 59.0 59.8
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Oct 71.6 65.0 66.9
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Sep 0.0 0.1 0.1
Friday, Nov 02
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Oct 0.2 0.3
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Oct 190 134
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Oct 3.7 3.7
9:45 ISM-New York index * Oct 822.0