If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks.  That's not to say the correlation was helping bonds move at the same pace as stocks--simply that the two had generally been moving higher and lower at the same time at almost any given moment over the past week and a half.  

The disconnect started taking shape yesterday when stocks set new lows for the current trend/move while bond yields were unable/unwilling to move back to their lows.  Then again in the overnight session, we saw stocks level-off around 4am while bond yields continued higher.  That didn't bode well for bonds heading into the rest of the day, but fortunately, they were willing to remain disconnected even as stocks rallied.

In other words, bond yields began improving modestly at the start of the domestic session even though stocks generally moved higher today.  Much of this could be explained by month-end trading positions that certain traders are forced to hold through tomorrow afternoon.  This sets us up for bigger potential volatility by the end of the week.  

In any event, it looks like bonds will require a lot of convincing if they're to move back to challenge recent lows (crummy econ data or massive stock losses).  But at least they don't look exceptionally eager to jump back up to last week's higher yields.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-05 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
3.1151 : +0.0281
Pricing as of 10/30/18 4:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:07AM  :  Bonds Weaker Overnight, Despite Limited Justification

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 30
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Aug +5.5 5.8 5.9
10:00 Consumer confidence * Oct 137.9 136.0 138.4
Wednesday, Oct 31
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 228.4
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 919.6
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Oct 189 230
8:30 Employment costs (%) Q3 0.7 0.6
8:30 Employment Wages qq (%)* Q3 0.5
9:45 Chicago PMI * Oct 60.0 60.4