The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place through this morning.  Bonds, on the other hand, are still in the consolidation pattern that accompanied the stock market volatility.  In that sense, it was a good day (i.e. no one would have been surprised to see bond yields rise in concert with the big bounce in stocks).

Bond traders could be waiting to make their move until tomorrow afternoon's Fed Minutes, or bonds could have simply benefits from a glut of retirement account funding associated with yesterday's tax deadline.  Either way, they were clearly not willing to rally in any significant way.  We still need to see 10yr yields break below 3.13% and hold those gains for a day or two before getting more optimistic about a bigger-picture bounce.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 4.0
100-06 : +0-02
10 YR
3.1614 : -0.0016
Pricing as of 10/16/18 4:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:09AM  :  Giving Back Some Early Gains as Stocks Bounce

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "If you smell a drop in inflation and a subtle shift toward weaker economic data that's sustained for 3 months or so, then yes. But while we're pushing economic numbers as strong as they currently are, you may smell a lot of things, but a rate cut certainly isn't one of them."
Ted Rood  :  "Don't hold your breath"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Do I smell rate cut?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Per cnbc article"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Trump says Fed is his 'biggest threat' because it is raising rates too fast"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 16
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Sep 78.1 78.2 78.1
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Sep +0.3 0.2 0.4
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Oct 68 67 67
Wednesday, Oct 17
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 921.2
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 238.0
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Sep 1.278 1.249
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Sep 9.2
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Sep 1.220 1.282
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Sep -4.1
14:00 FOMC Minutes *