Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets.  One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced to the edge of the same cliff and peered over the side.  It's like one of those far-fetched movie scenes where the character who apparently just fell to their death is instead clinging to a surprisingly sturdy tree root for dear life.  Bonds, on the other hand, may simply be gawking or lowering a rope.  Either way, they're not venturing down into that cliff to save stocks--at least not unless stocks slip even farther down.

Analogies aside, both sides of the market have been in consolidation mode since last week's stock sell-off.  The following chart shows that bond yields have technically edged out of that consolidative range, but we've seen early breakouts like this many times, only for yields to return to the midpoint of the range.  Instead, what we're looking for is a much bigger, much more sustained breakout that involves both sides of the market.

2018-10-16 open

If such a breakout is in the cards today, it's not immediately apparent what the catalyst would be.  Today's economic data is 2nd tier at best.  Tomorrow brings better options with the FOMC Minutes release at 2pm ET.  Remember, the Fed statement was almost perfectly unchanged, so the Minutes will be the key source of information from the last Fed meeting.  With so much focus on the Fed as a culprit behind the stock sell-off (whether fair or not), it's certainly possible that markets need to see the Minutes before deciding on the next move.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-04 : +0-00
Treasuries
10 YR
3.1633 : +0.0003
Pricing as of 10/16/18 8:38AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 16
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Sep 78.2 78.1
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Sep 0.2 0.4
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Oct 67 67