Zen practitioners are an odd lot.  One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense.  I can only imagine that the person who came up with that one had never actually seen a tree.  Perhaps he or she thought it was made of feathers.  

Or perhaps there really is some merit to the question inasmuch as how one defines "sound."  Does the falling tree still disturb surrounding particles of air and create soundwaves that COULD be heard if someone were within earshot?  Of course.  Does that count as "sound?" I don't really care.  Physics tells us the soundwaves are there, and that if anyone is close enough, they would hear them.

A far more relevant question is as follows.  If you hear a tree falling in the woods, do you give a damn?

In answering this question, there are a series of follow-up questions and contingencies.  How big is the tree?  How close is it?  Is it falling in my direction?  Depending on those answers, I personally might care a whole heck of a lot.  

Economic data and other potential market movers are all trees in the woods.  Sometimes they're big.  Sometimes they are right next to us.  Sometimes that can be scary.  

Today brings several big trees and a ton of smaller saplings.  The closest, biggest trees will be ADP employment right off the bat and then ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am.  Dotting the landscape throughout the day are more Fed speakers than I think I've ever seen in a single day.  They are the inconsequential saplings in the current case--es evidenced by the market's reaction to Powell yesterday.  ADP and ISM can certainly have an impact, but anyone with a healthy fear of those trees is far more concerned about the mightiest tree in the forest--the one we'll be standing right next to on Friday morning.

Bottom line: the next 48 hours are to be endured, but not focused upon as the key concern for our near-term odds of survival.  Some of the events could get our heart rates up, but the life and death risks are yet to come.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
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MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-28 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0874 : +0.0314
Pricing as of 10/3/18 8:21AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 03
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Sep 185 163
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Sep 58.0 58.5
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Sep 60.3 60.7