So there's this sideways trading range, and we're waiting for bonds to break out.  The end...

Seriously though!  It's really that simple.  We'd been in a range of 3.06-3.09, for the most part, in the last week and a half of September, but thought SURELY there would be no way to remain in that range after the much-anticipated Fed announcement last week.  

As it happened, Fed day was only able to catalyze a tentative break below 3.06--one that didn't even materialize until Friday morning.  To make matters more frustrating, bonds spent the entirety of Friday moving back up into the previous range.  Yesterday saw the weakness continue, nearly to the point of reaching the upper boundaries (in fact, yields were as high as 3.095% in the overnight hours).

Now today, we're starting the domestic session right back in the same old range.  There are no big-ticket market movers on tap.  The only possible exception is a Jerome Powell speech, but it's one of the off-the-beaten-path speaking engagements without a firmly set start time or clearly communicated existence of a Q&A time slot.  In other words, it wouldn't be a surprise if absolutely nothing came of today's scheduled events.  Once again, we're waiting for a range breakout but not necessarily expecting to see it for any particular reason or at any particular time. 

2018-10-2 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-31 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0706 : -0.0094
Pricing as of 10/2/18 8:35AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 02
9:45 ISM-New York index * Sep 810.7