By today, it became clear that bonds were fully locked into a sideways consolidation in a range defined by the highs seen on Wed/Thu and the lows marked by the 3.06% technical levels.  Of the past 3 sideways days, today was the least volatile and most lenders saw fit to offer just slightly stronger rate sheets despite 'unchanged' levels in bond markets.

Consolidations like this can happen simply because markets are catching their breath after a strong move or because they're settling down ahead of the next event that might cause a strong move.  If we're dealing with the latter, the event in question is likely to be Wednesday's Fed events (announcement, press conference and updated rate hike outlook).  Of those three, it's the(t "dots" he dot plot that conveys the rate hike outlook) that stands the best chance to push bonds in one direction or the other. 

To me--and perhaps this is just wishfully optimistic thinking--Fed speakers have struck a hawkish tone recently and therefore there might not be much more they could say to make traders think they want rates to go higher any faster than is already priced in.  That was an atrocious sentence, and I apologize.  What I'm trying to say is that the Fed would really have to be mean to us to imply rates need to go higher still.  Conversely, if the Fed is at all nice to us, there could be some pent-up bond buying to be done.  Again, this could be wishful thinking, so don't let it affect your lock/float strategy, but we might as well go into the weekend with some hope.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
100-27 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0665 : -0.0115
Pricing as of 9/21/18 5:27PMEST

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