The first two trading days of September introduce a somewhat serious threat to the calm, sideways range that dominated the past 3 weeks.  Granted, the rate spike in late July introduced a similar threat to the similar sideways range and we lived to tell the tale, but the bond bulls definitely made a weaker showing this time.  10yr yields only spent a few days prodding the floor around 2.80-2.82% in 10yr yields.  Back in June/July, yields touched that floor on each of the 4 weeks that the range remained intact.

Today's specific threats came from Brexit-related news and a glut of corporate issuance.  A stock sell-off at 9:30am helped bonds find their footing, but it wasn't enough to motivate a bond rally.  10yr yields drifted sideways through the afternoon just over 2.90%--right on the edge of confirming a move up and out of the prevailing range.

Today's general threat is that September is quickly looking like it wants to be a bad month for bonds after August largely played the opposite role.  Sometimes this "new month" trading only makes for a few days of momentum that doesn't end up sticking, but at this point, it's safest to assume September is out to get us and leave the burden of proof on bond bulls to show us they're still here.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-20 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.9040 : +0.0020
Pricing as of 9/5/18 4:43PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:31AM  :  Reprice Risk Fading as Bonds Recover
9:56AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as Sell-Off Continues
9:19AM  :  European Headlines Putting Pressure on Bonds

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Michael Shasteen  :  "Initial locks can't be same day as CD. LE must be disclosed a day prior to CD. You can disclose lock extension on CD but the closer will typically do it."
Bert Swyers  :  "nfp Friday a biggie"
Matthew Thomas  :  "Any big market moving reports/releases coming soon? I don't see anything major on the calendar for this week or next week. Whens the next big one?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "that 30 seconds of green was sweet"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 05
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 231.4 230.1
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 940.0 952.9
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Jul -50.1 -50.3 -46.3
9:45 ISM-New York index * Aug 810.7 797.5
Thursday, Sep 06
7:30 Challenger layoffs (k) Aug 27.122
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Aug 190 219
8:30 Productivity Revised (%) Q2 3.0 2.9
8:30 Labor Costs Revised (%) Q2 -0.9 -0.9
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 214 213
10:00 Nondef cap ex-air R mm (%) Jul 1.4
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Aug 56.9 56.5
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Aug 56.8 55.7
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Jul -0.6 0.7