Some economic reports matter when it comes to bond market movement potential, and many don't.  The tricky thing about econ data is that reports that HAVE had an impact in the past can easily get caught up in a newfound cycle of irrelevance. 

Take Jobless Claims for example.  No one could care any less about it today whereas it was one of the most consistent bellwethers of the recession 10 years ago.  Granted, it will have it's day in the sun again at some point, but it's not on any bond trader's radar at the moment--st least not in a capacity that informs present day trading decisions.

How about today's data?  Also the MBA's Mortgage Market Index may be relevant to us in the industry, this is also not a market mover for bonds.  International Trade is a tough report to categorize.  Other than final GDP revisions, no other data has any LESS market movement potential relative to how important it sounds/seems.  Indeed, both of the above have already come and gone, and there was absolutely no discernible reaction.

That leaves ISM New York at 9:45am.  This one is tricky too, because it shares a name with a report that sucker-punched bonds yesterday.  Indeed, both the ISM Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMIs are big potential market movers.  That's really always the case, provided bonds are willing to take ANY cues from data.

But ISM New York is not the same as the national ISM Manu/Non-Manu versions.  It rarely packs much of a punch and today will be no different.  If it LOOKS like it's having an impact, chances are that will be due to timing as it comes out 15 short minutes after the NYSE Open.

Unencumbered by the need to trade the econ data, bond markets will be left to show us a bit of their true colors as it concerns recent technical developments.  Specifically, are 10yr yields breaking up and out of the range ceiling zone at 2.88-2.90?  Or are they going to stay and fight?

2018-9-5 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-22 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.8876 : -0.0144
Pricing as of 9/5/18 8:52AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 05
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 344.0
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 230.1
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 952.9
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Jul -50.3 -46.3
9:45 ISM-New York index * Aug 797.5