August began with bond yields moving down from 3%, effectively keeping them in a sideways-to-slightly higher trend that arguably dates back to January.  The trend may have taken a break in the spring as yields tested a move over 3.10%, but geopolitical considerations and trade tensions quickly caused traders to rethink it.

2018-8-31 close

At times, the range has been as narrow as 2.82-2.88, which is also true for most of this week, and easily true for today.  With rates operating so persistently in such a narrow range, there's little to do but wait for a breakout.  Otherwise, we'd just be enumerating a litany of bull vs bear arguments for rates and marveling at their serendipitous counterbalance.

I sincerely apologize for that fact that the last sentence read like something out of a vocab book, or a high school term paper where the kid is trying too hard.  I will make it up to you by cutting today's recap short.  Back at it on Tuesday.  happy Labor Day weekend!


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-26 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.8604 : +0.0004
Pricing as of 8/31/18 5:34PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:47PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: If You Were Going to Lock Before the 3-day Weekend, Now's the Time
9:09AM  :  Bonds at Best Levels

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Aug 31
9:45 Chicago PMI * Aug 63.6 63.0 65.5
10:00 U Mich 1Yr Inf Final (%) Aug 3.0 2.9
10:00 U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final (%) Aug 2.6 2.5
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) Aug 96.2 95.5 95.3
Monday, Sep 03
0:00 Labor Day *
Tuesday, Sep 04
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Aug 70.0 73.2
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Aug 57.7 58.1
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Jul 0.5 -1.1
Wednesday, Sep 05
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 230.1
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 952.9
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Jul -50.0 -46.3
9:45 ISM-New York index * Aug 797.5
Thursday, Sep 06
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Aug 190 219
8:30 Productivity Revised (%) Q2 3.0 2.9
8:30 Labor Costs Revised (%) Q2 -0.9 -0.9
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 215 213
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Aug 56.5 55.7
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Jul -0.7 0.7
Friday, Sep 07
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Aug 0.2 0.3
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Aug 190 157
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Aug 3.8 3.9