In terms of scheduled data and events, this week is much lighter than last.  It will also be more susceptible to the effects of light liquidity as market participants will increasingly be out of the office through Labor Day.  While the latter means that some of the movement we see should be taken with a grain of salt, we should nonetheless expect at least some sort of verdict from a few of the week's more important events.

Chief among these is the 10yr Treasury auction on Wednesday.  This isn't our typical market mover because, indeed, it may not prove to move markets at all.  But because of the newly increased size of the auction and the recently higher trading levels, it has the chance to serve as confirmation that bonds are trading where they want to trade or to imply something else.

As far as "something else" is concerned, we're talking about a noticeably stronger auction suggesting that the near-term ceiling is solid (i.e. bonds don't want to go over 3%), or a noticeably weaker auction suggesting the recently negative trends are more likely to continue.  

From a technical standpoint, the week is beginning in a hopeful stance, although we're still waiting for a few positive cues that haven't quite materialized--things like a confirmed shift in longer-term momentum metrics, a break below the middle Bollinger Band (yellow lines), and a confirmed break below the 2.95% technical level (not pictured).

2018-8-6 open

Apart from the auction, Friday's CPI data deserves a bit of respect and attention.  We haven't seen nearly as much volatility surrounding CPI in the last few months as we did in the year or so before that, but that could quickly change if numbers start to drift markedly higher or lower versus the consensus.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 4.0
101-22 : +0-01
10 YR
2.9413 : -0.0107
Pricing as of 8/6/18 9:31AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 07
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 34
Wednesday, Aug 08
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 237.9
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 971.3
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 26
Thursday, Aug 09
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Jul 2.8 2.8
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Jul 0.2 0.3
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 218
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Jun 0.0 0.0
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)* 18
Friday, Aug 10
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Jul 2.3 2.3
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Jul 0.2 0.1