Bond markets began the day in roughly unchanged territory as they geared up to digest any curveballs from the payrolls data.  NFP came in weaker than expected, missing by 33k.  Revisions to the previous month, however, were +35k, making the headline a bit less potent.  Elsewhere in the data, wages remained tepid due to a negative revision to last month's average hourly earnings.  

All of the above was apparently enough ("absence of negative news" perhaps?) for bonds to rally moderately.  Following the weaker ISM data at 10am, bonds were willing to rally a bit more, and that was about all there was to say about that! 

10yr yields rallied 3.5bps in total, but notably, didn't break below the 2.95% technical level.  Fannie 4.0 MBS added just over an eighth of a point, with only a few lenders deigning to reprice with the gains.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-22 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.9506 : -0.0354
Pricing as of 8/3/18 7:12PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:12AM  :  Weaker ISM Validates Morning Gains
8:51AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: NFP?! More Like NF ZZZZZzzzzzzz.....

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "I see this as the core long-term trend that's currently intact. 2013 taper tantrum was a false start toward even higher rates. 2016 Brexit was a false start in the other direction. Now we're pushing the higher end of that trend again, which is why I think we're seeing what you're perceiving as signs of support. And to the extent that's "support inside an unsupportive long-term trend," I'd agree. View Image"
Hugh W. Page  :  "Hmm. I don't know. Kinda looks like we're rolling over at this level again. Sort of looks Head & Shouldersish and then next move is down perhaps?"
Matthew Graham  :  "I'd take a step back and look for the internal trendline implied by the 5-yr chart"
Hugh W. Page  :  "But, we have had these issues and fears around for some time now and we can't seem to go much higher than this level. What changes that pushes us higher?"
Matthew Graham  :  "Still, unless the economy takes a big turn for the worse, or unless stocks undergo a big technical correction and enter a bear market, the realities of ever-increasing Treasury issuance coupled with a few more Fed rate hikes make glorious bounces seem like longshots. Granted, markets price a good amount of that in ahead of time, but not all of it."
Matthew Graham  :  "I'd rather break higher and get it over with. If we don't move higher, I see the alternative as a more gradual uptrend like 2003-2007, one that still tops out at 3.25% or higher."
Hugh W. Page  :  "So, I'm starting to believe this 3.00%ish level in the 10 yr might be our top end for the rest of the year. Who's with me?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Aug 03
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Jul 3.9 3.9 4.0
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Jul +157 190 213
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jul 55.7 58.6 59.1