After holding the same sideways range since June 27th, 10yr Treasury yields finally knocked on the 2.88+ ceiling for the 2nd time (the previous attempt being July 3rd).  But that's about as exciting as I can make today sound.  The overall move higher in yields was less than 2bps, and volume was exceptionally low.

If anything, the challenge of the range ceiling (failed challenge, really) was the product of serendipitous afternoon tradeflows amid highly illiquid trading conditions.  Today's economic data and Fed Chair testimony did little, if anything, to motivate trade.

Whereas the afternoon was an illiquid desert for bonds, the morning hours were only slightly better.  Still, the morning at least had a clear source of inspiration in the form of European bond market movement.  Treasuries and German Bunds (the European 10yr benchmark) were joined at the hip for the most active hours of the day.  It wasn't until Europe closed that things really started to slide domestically.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-28 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.8747 : +0.0127
Pricing as of 7/18/18 5:43PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:42PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Now Increasing
3:16PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Weakest Levels
8:56AM  :  Bonds Not Eager to Extend Gains Despite Super Weak Housing Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Chris Stevens  :  "I think these Powell comments were more important- "...a good question Congress should be asking is did restrictions on credit availability go too far? He explained that while restrictions were necessary due to the bad decisions made in the lending sector, he asked was it done at the right level? “It’s not too soon to be looking at that,”"
Sung Kim  :  "the rally is coming, it's just a question of when - before or after you need to lock"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 18
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 247.9 261.5
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 979.6 958.5
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Jun 1.273 1.330 1.301
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Jun -12.3 5.0
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Jun -2.2 -4.6
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Jun 1.173 1.320 1.350
Thursday, Jul 19
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jul 21.5 19.9
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 214
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.730 1.739
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Jun 0.4 0.2