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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.9%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (43.8%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (29.2%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program

MBS OPEN: Fed Day

Posted
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Yesterday's Recap

- Tsy's Rallied as MBS rallied a bit less...

- Super Mega 2yr auction, but no one cared

- Low Volume, Low volatility before Fed

The AM So Far...

- Durable goods up 1.8%, Tsy's and MBS sell sell sell...

- Massive injection from ECB, libor breaking all kinds of records..

- Fed still the headline, but Durable goods results not friendly

- Spreads dramatically tighter as tsy's sell appreciably while MBS hold within an eighth of steady

 

Charts

(these DO NOT include the recent impact of durables.  Check the rates page for latest changes)

Here's an idea of the longer term:

MBS QUOTES

Finally, here's a little easter egg I put together for you last night just to give you cliff notes on Fed meetings over the last year set against the backdrop of MBS prices.  Read into what you will.  I have no educational agenda in posting it.  What are your thoughts?  What is this chart telling you?  You'll probably need to click through to a larger version, which is HERE.

S&P Futures:  +9.30 (+1.04%) to 899.50

6/23 EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS:   +0.00  to  0.24 from 0.24

LIBOR FIXINGS

O/N LIBOR:     -0.0019    to  0.2756   from  0.2775

1 MONTH:       -0.0025    to  0.3113   from  0.3137

3 MONTH:       -0.0031    to  0.6044   from  0.6075

6 MONTH:       -0.0175    to  1.1313   from  1.1487

1 YEAR:           -0.0375    to  1.6400   from  1.6775

Data provided by Thomson Reuters
Secondary Marketing Managers and Capital Markets Desks, if you are interested in subscribing to the same fixed income and mortgage market data we use:CLICK HERE.

Comments

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on
Just read an ariticle suggesting the Fed may use funds earmarked for the pruchase of MBA to instead purchase longer dated TrSY's
on
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=av3UBszz.038...........................CUOMO KICKBACK STORY
on
What are the chances morning rates will go unchanged?
on
So what's everyone preferred bottle of alcohol to keep on their desks today?
on
Can someone say 'Holding pattern'???
on
AQ, isn't Cuomo the same guy that set us up with the HVCC??? I'll make a deal with him, I'll forget about the kick-backs if he takes away the HVCC - TODAY!!!
on
what time is the fun supposed to start?
on
Has anyone heard that they revised the home sales report and they actually declined by .6%?
on
I only sent the above message one time, sorry guys, not my fault.
on
Adam: Just read the same thing. Home sales were down in May. Result of high unemployment and rising rates I am sure.
on
Anyone see the AP article suggesting that the Fed curb it's purchase of TSY and MBS? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-mulls-tweaks-to-economic-apf-232707420.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
on
Thats newly built homesales that slipped
on
New-Home Sales Slip in May, Another Sign of Slow Recovery AP New Home New US home sales fell slightly last month, in another sign that the housing market's recovery is likely to be gradual and prolonged. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales dropped 0.6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, from a downwardly revised April rate of 344,000. Sales were down nearly 33 percent from May last year. May's results missed the economists' expectations of a 360,000 sales pace, according to Thomson Reuters. The median sales price of $221,600, was down 3.4 percent from a year earlier but still up 4.2 percent from April.
on
HEY HEY! exciting news today. . . I was very worried about HVCC from the start. but I got back a sloppy low ball appraisal today and HVCC Just killed it's first victim from my pipeline(many more to come I'm sure)!!!!!!!!!!!!
on
I was talking about existing home sales Adam, you did not specify in your first posted question, sorry, my bad
on
Anyone who buys a new home right now is insane IMO. You can buy a "used" 2 year old home right down the street for 70 cents on the dollar, and it's every bit as nice. New homes are terrible investments unless a person is planning on staying in that new home for 10+ years. If a person buys a new home now and goes to sell it 4 years from now, his house will be viewed exactly the same as that 2-year older house that is undercutting his price by 20%. Talk about being stuck!
on
My family just picked up a deal on a new home down in FL. 155k for a 3 bed townhouse on the golf course wih 2 car attached garage. Developers close out. They sold all remaining units that weekend and are only builidng new ones going forward when they have a contract. Price of new ones... 235k. So I think they did pretty good buying a new home. It just depends. A lot of the foreclosures have a lot of damage done to them and short sales are a nightmare to deal with.
on
whats the word today..anyone optimistic?
on
I am starting to get a bad feeling about today....anyone else?
on
Me too. 10 year tsy yield is up... Anyone else have any news about the direction of the wind?
on
Adam-the market is a MESS down here in FL. Homes that were bought for $250K 3 years ago, can now be bought through short-sale @ $50K. I've seen it happen several times. Getting the appraisal signed off on for vanilla deals is like pulling teeth. We're a long way from stable here.
on
No kidding about FL! That's where my purchase is going through right now. Waiting on the appraisal now.. sold $497K 2 years ago, it was an unsuccessful short sale at $279K for about 6 months, picked it up in foreclosure for $225K. Beautiful 5/2.5 w/ pool on a golf course community.
on
W/ the durable goods report I thought the TSY yield would be even higher than it is. I guess the big money is still on the sidelines until 2:15. Right??? Wouldn't the Fed moving money towards the purchase of TSY be a great thing for us? MBS would follow, even w/o gov't backing. I'm not feeling so well about all of this. I have 3 that need to be locked by Friday. I think I'll lock 1 and float 2. Maybe the other way around. The price leader is actually a touch better today.
on
I feel sick to my stomach already ,, no good felings about today.. so I just locked at 5.250 buying 1.50 points.... hopefully everything goes just fine... oh still nervous @!@
on
More negative press re hvcc: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31509964/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
on
Just got a rate sheet from keybank. FHA 30yr @ 5.375 for .625 points which was better than yesterdays 5.375 for 1.25 points
on
I hope I made the right decision, its pretty confusing today. you never know
on
Lisa you cannot beat yourself up over it. Your getting a good rate. I just locked a couple files right now since they are within a short closing window. I cannot take a chance of the rates going up for those files. Other files are floating.
on
Last night my loan officer said he could get me a 4.875 15 yr 0 points! He seemed to think that today it would be even lower. I'm already willing to lock that rate, but I guess I will do as he suggests and wait and see what happens today.
on
Lisa I agree w/ Adam. Good job! I'm going ahead and locking a couple as well. The risk is just too great and this is all going to give me health issues:)
on
I know, thanks for comforting, I locked within 15 days period, my closing date july 9th. pray pray everything goes well.
on
30 year FHA in NJ - $158000 loan, 799 credit score closing in 30 days..i got a rate of 5.5% with 0 points. whats the consensus regarding lock or float before the meeting at 2:15 considering my scenario. much appreciated
on
Christina if your happy with 4.875 then lock it. what happens if the rates go up? The blame game will not get you your rate back with no points. If you think it is worth rolling the dice then it may pay off nicely for you.
on
Adam, thanks for the Bloomberg link, I wish only misery & disgust for Mr. Andrew Homo and was glad to see some sign it may soon be coming to fruition. This douche only got his job cause of his did and is playing politics with my money. He wanted to put his face on TV so he can run for NY governor and enacted the stupid HVCC that has already cost me thousands of dollars. HVCC solves Nothing! Everyone except this douche knew it from day 1 and it is only exacerbating the very problem this guy is bragging about solving
on
Anybody see pathetic bloomberg article on low appraisals slowing the housing recovery? --Amazing that no where in the article is HVCC acronym used...wording gives impression that this was a voluntary agreement between mortgage industry and Cuomo--and the appraisers are the bad guys now....(Personal Finance--Bloomberg--Dan Levy author)
on
John I do not know every aspect of your scenario but in general 5.5% is a good rate. Since your closing in 30 days you do have some time. Everyone wants the lowest rate possible but just consider a range of rates you would be happy with and how much you are willing to pay if rates do go up. If 5.5% is your max rate, then you might want to lock. If it is in the middle then you can float.
on
thanks adam. how long does it generally take rates to adjust after a big event like this? if the meeting today has bad effects, could rates come back down in 30 days..? just asking based on prior experience as this is the fed meeting i've paid mind to
on
John there are a lot of factors that go into it and can vary with each lender. Rates generally go up faster than they come down. If rates do go up then they can come back down within 30 days.