If bond markets had a nice month-end buying spree at the end of June, it happened on the 27th.  The next two days saw moderate weakness.  Yesterday's July opener took the weakness to a slightly higher level.

While there's every possibility that yesterday's "new month" trading has already run its course (thus leaving bonds very light on inspiration until Thursday at the earliest), 3 successive days of weakness means it's a good idea for us to check in with nearby overhead ceilings.

2.885% has came up several times in June and now provides an early morning bounce today.  If bonds re-weaken and head higher, we'd be looking at 2.91 nearby, followed by 2.95%. Momentum metrics suggest a shift in short-term momentum, and a leveling-off in longer-term momentum.

2018-7-3 open

Keep in mind that today is an early close in honor of Independence Day.  Volumes and liquidity will be dropping rapidly after European trading winds down (noon-ish).  That means any imbalances between buyers and sellers (i.e.positive or negative pressure on rates) could be amplified.  That said, "amplified" doesn't mean anything too crazy on a day like today.  It's more to say that bonds could make some moves even if it doesn't look like there's a fundamental reason to do so.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-27 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.8693 : +0.0023
Pricing as of 7/3/18 9:03AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 03
9:45 ISM-New York index * Jun 782.5
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) May 0.0 -0.8