Bond markets have their rally caps on after making it through both central bank announcements this week without suffering any crazy damage.  In fact, each day brought modest improvements and now today stands the chance of bringing enough of a rally to "confirm" those improvements from a technical standpoint.

2018-6-15 open

That's about the size of it at the moment.  We're watching and waiting with fingers crossed.  It's much the same as a sporting event where our team just made a good defensive stand and now has the ball on offense.  They may or may not score, as always, but it's nice to have a chance!

The only thing that troubles me about rooting for a bigger rally is that the justification for sustained improvement will be really hard to come by without something changing about the bigger picture.  We'd need a deterioration in economic data, stocks, or geopolitical issues in order to "fuel" a sustained rally.  In other words, be ready to react if it looks like we're bouncing, and don't hope for too much follow-through from this particular rally (barring unforeseen shocks, of course).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-24 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.9077 : -0.0383
Pricing as of 6/15/18 9:35AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 15
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jun 19.00 20.10
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) May 78.1 78.0
9:15 Industrial Production (%) May 0.2 0.7
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Jun 2.8
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Jun 98.5 98.0
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Jun 2.5