Much like last week, this week's event calendar is limited in terms of top tier data and events, but nonetheless carries the potential for technical momentum.  The underlying reasons are a bit different, however.  Last week, the risk was that rates had been super flat and narrow for 2+ weeks.   The longer and narrower those sideways streaks become, the more likely a breakout becomes (obviously), and those breakouts tend to have more momentum than normal.

This week's set-up is somewhat similar to the highs in rates seen at the end of April.  In both cases, we'd just spiked to the highest rates seen in a long time and then saw one really solid day of improvement.  In the late-April case, it was that day of improvement that preceded the sideways drift.  

In this week's case, today would be the first day of a sideways drift (if that happens to be what's in the cards).

2018-5-21 open

In terms of timing and the calendar, it's a decent enough possibility.  The lineup of data and events is far from intense, with Friday's Durable Goods being the only top-tier report.  That said, Treasury auctions on Tue-Thu have a chance to show traders' hands to some extent.  Friday afternoon brings an early close for Memorial Day weekend, and markets will be fully-closed on Monday.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 4.0
101-06 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
3.0762 : +0.0092
Pricing as of 5/21/18 9:51AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 22
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 33
Wednesday, May 23
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 376.5
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Apr 0.679 0.694
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 36
Thursday, May 24
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 222
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Mar 0.6
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Apr 5.57 5.60
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 30
Friday, May 25
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Apr 0.7 -0.4
8:30 Durables ex-transport (%) Apr 0.5 0.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Apr -1.4 2.6
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) May 98.8 98.8
10:00 U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final (%) May 2.5