Are rates in the process of confirming a top or are they simply in some sort of consolidation period before continuing higher to the scarier levels we've entertained from time to time this year (say, 3.25%, or something around that)?

One might read something like this, and conclude "of course we're destined to move higher than 3%.  I mean, look at all the stuff in play that points to higher rates this time around when compared to 2013/2014!!"  But those who espouse that stance are increasingly forced to answer the question: "then why haven't we seen it yet?"

In the other camp, those who are trying to make a case for bond yields having topped out for the year have an even tougher product to sell.  A few of the things upon which they can hang their hats include trade war potential, geopolitical risk, a slow global recovery, rate differentials between the US and other countries, unimpressive growth, and of course, mysteriously intractable inflation and wage growth.  In any event, they're going to need to see a break below 2.95%--one that holds--before their case becomes anything more than theoretical. 

2018-5-11 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
99-03 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
2.9586 : -0.0124
Pricing as of 5/11/18 8:32AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, May 11
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Apr 0.5 0.0
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Apr 0.3 0.3
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* May 2.7
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* May 2.5
10:00 Consumer Sentiment May 98.5 98.8