With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.948% is a bit of an equivocal message.  On the one hand, that number is lower than 2.95%, and it took a 3bp rally to get here.  That's good! 

On the other hand, that number essentially IS 2.95%.  In other words, bonds have moved right onto the proverbial fence for tomorrow's NFP number.  

From there, we might ask ourselves how much NFP matters.  While I'll certainly talk more about this tomorrow morning, it's safe to say that NFP always CAN matter, even if it's not in a trend of extreme importance at the moment.  Last month's report was evidence of this, as the surprisingly weak result unequivocally helped rates improve.

The same can't be said for today's data.  Although bonds did improve following the ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers, the move happened a full 18 minutes after the report--not the kind of thing we expect to see when markets are reacting to a data release.  Rather, it was some combination of European bond market strength, domestic stock market weakness, and crumbling cookies that left US bond markets in better shape today.  But again, we could just be witnessing a return to the closest "fence" ahead of the week's riskiest econ data.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
99-07 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.9477 : -0.0163
Pricing as of 5/3/18 4:38PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:51AM  :  Stock Lever and Technicals Pulling Yields Lower
9:10AM  :  Little-Changed After Data; Holding Solid Gains

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "imo you should lock, there is little upside until we see more stock meltdown"
Rob Cole  :  "With the jobs report coming out tomorrow do you guys recommend a float or lock? I have a client who wanted to float yesterday but has asked that I help make the decision today. $453,100 conforming loan. 800+ mid fico. Closing is set for June 15th so we have some time but I’m afraid tomorrow’s job report could effect things."