With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.948% is a bit of an equivocal message.  On the one hand, that number is lower than 2.95%, and it took a 3bp rally to get here.  That's good! 

On the other hand, that number essentially IS 2.95%.  In other words, bonds have moved right onto the proverbial fence for tomorrow's NFP number.  

From there, we might ask ourselves how much NFP matters.  While I'll certainly talk more about this tomorrow morning, it's safe to say that NFP always CAN matter, even if it's not in a trend of extreme importance at the moment.  Last month's report was evidence of this, as the surprisingly weak result unequivocally helped rates improve.

The same can't be said for today's data.  Although bonds did improve following the ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers, the move happened a full 18 minutes after the report--not the kind of thing we expect to see when markets are reacting to a data release.  Rather, it was some combination of European bond market strength, domestic stock market weakness, and crumbling cookies that left US bond markets in better shape today.  But again, we could just be witnessing a return to the closest "fence" ahead of the week's riskiest econ data.