Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot them down (here).  That was initially of some benefit to bonds just before the start of the domestic session, but it didn't create any lasting momentum.  After all, bonds still had to get through all of the events that would surely cause bigger movement: CPI data, 10yr Treasury Auction, and the Fed Minutes.

But none of the remaining events really moved the needle.  CPI came in just a hair weaker, but was only weak enough to be traded as such by the time investors scoured the internals (thereby seeing medical supplies and "shelter" costs buoying the otherwise weaker price movement).  The 10yr auction was inoffensive, and the FOMC Minutes contained no new news.

With bonds in stronger shape than traders thought necessary in the morning, the day was spent gradually drifting higher in yield until the 10yr auction.  After the auction confirmed yields didn't need to go any higher, the rest of the day was spent drifting sideways to slightly stronger.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
100-02 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.7790 : -0.0180
Pricing as of 4/11/18 6:36PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:23PM  :  Detailed 10yr Auction Results, Two Ways
1:06PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: 10yr Auction Decent, But Bonds Lose Ground; Some Reprice Risk
8:39AM  :  Core CPI Right on The Screws; Bonds Not Sure How to Act

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Anderson  :  "10 years of transitory"
Matthew Graham  :  "looks like no new news so far"
Matthew Graham  :  "ALMOST ALL POLICYMAKERS SUPPORTED HIKE AT MARCH MEETING; A COUPLE POINTED TO POSSIBLE BENEFITS OF POSTPONING HIKE"
Matthew Graham  :  "ALL POLICYMAKERS SAID FURTHER TIGHTENING POLICY LIKELY WARRANTED, ALMOST ALL AGREED GRADUAL APPROACH APPROPRIATE"
Victor Burek  :  "for real this time?"
Matthew Graham  :  "MANY POLICYMAKERS SAID THEY WERE MORE CONFIDENT INFLATION WOULD RISE TO TARGET IN COMING MONTHS AND STABILIZE AROUND THAT LEVEL"
Matthew Graham  :  "ALL FED POLICYMAKERS EXPECTED 12-MONTH INFLATION TO RISE IN COMING MONTHS; POLICYMAKERS NOTED THE WIDELY EXPECTED INCREASE WOULD NOT BY ITSELF JUSTIFY CHANGE IN PROJECTED RATE PATH -MINUTES OF MARCH 20-21 MEETING"
Matthew Graham  :  "STRONG MAJORITY OF POLICYMAKERS VIEWED PROSPECT OF RETALIATORY TRADE ACTIONS BY OTHER COUNTRIES AS DOWNSIDE RISK FOR U.S. ECONOMY"
Matthew Graham  :  "tough to grade. for those that dissect the past data, it's a solid B/B+. For the casual observer, perhaps a C-"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 9-YR 10-MO NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.46, NON-COMP BIDS $8.26 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $21 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 2.795 PCT, AWARDS 70.96 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Matthew Graham  :  "This is a "refunding" auction, which tends to have slightly weaker stats vs reopening auctions, Average bit-do-cover is 2.32x. The when-issued yield is 2.793 and the average result is 1.2bps higher (so 2.805%). Indirects take an average of 62%"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 11
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 247.3 252.3
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1110.8 1130.1
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Mar +2.1 2.1 1.8
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Mar -0.1 0.0 0.2
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 21
14:00 FOMC Minutes *